The death of the car is overated. According to oil conglomerate BP there will be 2bn cars on the road by 2040.
BP have plenty of obvious financial reasons for wanting to keep motors on the road, and it’s no surprise that their recent predictions are also saying that oil will still be the fuel of choice for 85 per cent of vehicles in 20 years time – even if there will be 300m electric vehicles on the roads.
Energy Outlook, BPs annual check on the future of the industry revealed this week that oil consumption will continue through the next two decades, but will peak in the late 2030s, with the use of air conditioning and plastics manufacturing the main two reasons for the continued use of oil.
“The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil demand to collapse just isn't supported by the basic numbers – even with really rapid growth,” said Spencer Dale, BP’s Chief Economist.
“Even in the scenario where we see a ban on combustion engines and very high-efficiency standards, oil demand is still higher in 2040 than it is today.”
So a move away from oil consumption by cars, but not such a gloomy outlook for oil, even if other environmental predictions suggest we might have exhausted fossil fuels by this point.